House prices could fall by up to 20% this year in a worst case scenario for the economy, according to Jefferies.
The market analyst reports that the stock market is already pricing in a 12% drop in house prices, as a consequence of the Covid-19 outbreak.
A 20% fall would knock £49,900 off the average £234,700 selling price.
Savills also predicts that property prices will fall this year, albeit at a reduced rate of between 5% and 10%.
Knight Frank has revised its short-term forecast for the UK’s housing market, but offers a more optimistic forecast, with UK house prices to fall by 3% in 2020.
Looking longer-term, all three firms expect prices to rise annually between 2021 and 2024 as the economy recovers.
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My view is that prices will dip but then rise sharply at the end of the year. Many people will hesitate to invest in stocks and shares for a couple of years and may see property as a safer investment long-term?
I think property has been over valued for sometime and this is the straw that will break the camels back, added to that large mortgages will be hard to get which will hit the young first time buyer hard, just like shares the lose in value is only a figure on paper, it is only a true lose if or when you sell.
Any price drop will be an articifial one due to the current cirmcumstances, ie the housing market has shut down. Imagine a rubber band being pulled down. When the market reopens and you let go, snap! The wobbly house price line always goes up and has been since 1970. That wont change now.
Mathew, you are very upbeat. With wages clearly set to fall, unemployment rise to unknown levels, I am far less sure that prices will go up. I would much more understand rents dropping 30% and values close to that range or more. Anyway, Happy Easter.
Matthew, where were you in 1989/90 ?
I am generally a positive person Mark and look for opportunity and silver linings in life, however, you only need to look at historical stats and untold news. How many times have people predicted a monster price drop, yet in 50 years it has never happened, why now? (I am not saying they will go up btw, just any current drop will reverse quickly) 2008 was 15% and that didnt take long to reverse. People in the UK generally dont move for profit, they move for life reasons, there will always be enough demand, enough people, enough solutions from stakeholders like lenders for example that mean the cogs will still turn. The British mentality and in particular the BBC where most people on the clapham omninbus get their daily digest, always focus on the negative news, every article is glass half empty, this business failing, that business in trouble. For every story of a business in trouble, there is an untold one of a business that is flying, and having a nice time, and thousands who are unnafected and treading water. Try the BBC News homepage game, just done it. 11/12 articles have a negative headline, and its not all CV. This is bad, that is bad. Spend too much time on there and you can develop and very negative view on life.
(Rents likewise are set to spiral with government policy on the PRS about to spectacularly backfire. With 5, 6, 7, 8 tenants wanting each available property and rising sharply how can they do anything else?)
Hi Andrew, on my way to Uni! Thats why my line is wobbly. There are bumps in the road. Draw a line on a graph from 1970 to 2020 and the trajectory is roughly at 2 o clock from the centre. After you have stripped out inflation, they have more than doubled in spite of all the disasters en route.
Keep your fingers crossed, the government might provide some stimulus and reverse section 24 amongst other things, to get the wheels turning again!
Market forces will ensure property values and rents recover pretty quickly in 2021. Any dip is a buying opportunity for properties and shares.
Just some anecdotal evidence which confirms the positive angle.
Just been to the chippy.
They have been so busy they have stopped answering the phone or even taking online orders!
Another I am having numerous inquiries as to any letting availability.
Mine are all gone.
Seems there is a shortage in B Stortford.
Lots of Ryanair want places.
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