New research commissioned by the landlords’ trade body shows that the UK needs almost 230,000 new private rented homes a year to meet government housing targets.
The analysis for the NRLA was undertaken by business consultancy Capital Economics and is based on government targets for 340,000 new homes a year across the UK by the middle of the decade.
Capital Economics says that if owner occupation and social housing continue at their 10-year average rate of growth, private rented sector supply would have to increase by 227,000 per year to meet government targets and an anticipated 1.8m new households by 2032.
It notes that “even if the other [housing] tenures doubled their rate of growth, 105,000 homes for private rental would be needed each year, which is well above current rates of growth.”
The projections come as government figures show that the supply of private rented housing in England has fallen by almost 260,000 over the past five years.
Given that renting privately is the first tenure nearly all young people enter when they want or need to leave home or university, the NRLA says that demand will only increase as the 15 to 24 cohort in the population is forecast to grow between now and 2030 by 866,000.
Modelling by Capital Economics suggests that without changes in tax or other policies, the private rented sector stock will decrease by around a further 540,000 properties over the next 10 years.
The report sets out how, in order to meet targets for housing supply the Treasury needs to encourage investment in the sector.
Greater investment in the sector would, it argues, support the provision of new housing through a combination of an increased rate of new builds; the switching of commercial property to residential use; the switching of stock from short term to long term lets and bringing empty homes back into use.
The report further notes that, whilst some of the demand for new rental properties will be met through build to rent schemes, this remains a small portion of the market. Individual landlords, it notes, “remain the largest providers of private rental accommodation by some distance.”
NRLA chief executive Ben Beadle says: “The report highlights in stark detail the supply crisis now engulfing the sector. For all the efforts to support homeownership, the private rented sector has a vitally important role to play in helping the Government to achieve its housing objectives.
“Without urgent action, the increasing number of people looking for affordable housing will be the ones to struggle as they face less choice and higher rents as supply dries up.”
And Andrew Evans, managing economist for Capital Economics, adds: “The private rented sector, which is predominantly supported by private individual investors, has a key role to play in addressing housing need in the UK.
“However, the stock of homes for private rent has fallen in recent years, driven partly by a series of policy changes. Without further changes, that supply could fall by over half a million more over the next decade.
“Even with increased provision of affordable housing and higher rates of owner occupation, both of which are important, our research shows that significant additional investment is needed by landlords in the private rented sector. “
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This reduction is supply will carry on unless they do a u-turn on clause 24 of FA 201 which has increased the tax rate on profits to over 100% for those landlords with borrowings. Now we know what the tax rate is (it’s taken since 2015 to figure this out because is the sly & complicated legislation) all landlords are sellers now. Good riddance to a barrage of tax and red tape that is non stop.
Never going to happen , the whole political system is now devoted to the build back better mantra , basically they’re bought and paid for by the usual suspects
This article is fantastic in the way it highlights what we all know, but we also understand the government will just carry on regardless. The aims are sensible but the game is up, we had better be prepared for a homelessness scene similar to LA in America. Just how incompetent is this government.
Why let an inconvenient set of facts get in the way of Govt policy?
Great report but only of any use if the NRLA can get the message through to the general public which so far they have shown themselves to be utterly useless at doing. Both the government and opposition aren’t interested in the current crisis or the even greater crisis looming just that they can carry on blaming private Landlords for the mess they created! As long as the Public continue to believe we are the devil nothing will change. So once again I say “where are you NRLA?!!”
With Shelter egging on a naive government to bring in anti landlord legislation upon legislation I fear PRS is terminal so there's little if any need for NRLA.
Sad but very possibly true!
Agree. However, with the demise of the PRS there's no need for Shelter either. Every cloud has a silver lining ..
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