Pundit says he knows how long property downturn will last

Pundit says he knows how long property downturn will last


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The boss of a comparison website claims to know how long the property downturn will last roughly, anyway.

Colby Short of GetAgent says that since 2005 there have been 32 periods of house price decline, the majority of which have been singular monthly declines, with the worst lasting 10 months. 

In contrast, there have also been 32 periods of buoyant house price growth over that period, lasting 4.4 months on average, with the longest running for 19 months. 

England is home to the strongest market when it comes to the balance between boom and bust, with the average period of house price decline lasting 2.3 months versus an average of 4.6 months when house prices have climbed. 

Scotland is home to a more balanced market in this respect, with house prices falling by an average of 2.0 months, whilst periods of house price growth last just 2.6 months on average,

Wales is home to the lowest average period of house price decline at 1.5 months, although periods of property price appreciation also only last for an average of 2.3 months. 

Short comments: “Last week’s UK House Price Index revealed the first signs of a house price downturn, with the monthly rate of growth dropping for the first time since October 2021. This may understandably come as a cause for concern for the nation’s home sellers but the chances are they have nothing to worry about in the long-term. 

“The property selling process is a protracted one and as our research shows, any period of downward price movement is generally short lived, not to mention often marginal. 

“Historic data can only provide insight into the past performance of the market and it certainly doesn’t provide a guarantee of future market trends. But while we may have seen a slight reduction on a month to month basis, the overall market is still in very fine shape and sellers remain in a very strong position.”

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