Interest Rate Decision Day – experts split ahead of verdict

Interest Rate Decision Day – experts split ahead of verdict


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Speculation about which way the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will go on interest rates today remains sharply divided. 

The Bank’s committee meets this morning, with a decision at noon – this will be covered by Landlord Today.

Although the headline rate of inflation has been at the Bank’s target 2% for several weeks now, there is concern over services inflation which remains at 5.7%, and an unexpected surge in gross domestic product expanding by 0.4% in May, double the expected figure.

The agency Newspage has canvassed 10 views from the broker and property sectors – stick or drop?

Ken James, director at Contractor Mortgage Services: “To wait or not to wait, that is the question buyers and sellers will be asking ahead of next week’s Bank of England rate decision. Even ahead of a potential base rate cut it’s becoming a fast and furious ride, with mortgage rate changes rocking the market daily. While the odds of a base rate cut are improving, lenders have been cutting rates and creating their own mini- rate war without the base rate even shifting. 

“We are seeing more activity and certainly more enthusiasm among people to go out and try to buy. Some will continue to hold back for a few months, others will be waiting for 80%-90% loan-to-value mortgages to go below 4%. If mortgages at lower higher LTVs go sub-4%, I suspect we are in for a mortgage feeding frenzy. Remember we are not looking to advise clients on the best time to buy, we are advising them on the best products available based on their criteria if they decide that this is the right time for them.”

Chris Barry, director at Thomas Legal: “A quarter point reduction in August is now looking probable and, if this plays out as most expect, buyers will flock to the market like crows circling roadkill. Increased activity levels will almost certainly mark the beginning of SSTC (sold subject to contract) prices starting to tick up once more. Buyers should try and get in quick to avoid added competition for available stock.”

Stephen Perkins, managing director at Yellow Brick Mortgages: “At present, there is still more property for sale than active buyers making offers, so it will likely take more than the first base rate cut to tip the scales in favour of sellers. The first base rate reduction will build buyer confidence and bring more to the party, but it will be a few months before there is a material shift in supply and demand.”

Craig Fish, director of Lodestone Mortgages and Protection: “We have been warning our clients for a while now to be on the lookout for that first base rate cut, as it’s likely to kickstart the market and instigate a significant increase in enquiries. This will likely see the current buyers’ market transition to a sellers’ market. To avoid disappointment, now is likely the perfect time to buy before we start to see asking prices increase and sellers hold out for better offers.”

Katy Eatenton, mortgage & protection specialist at Lifetime Wealth Managament: “My message has been the same all year, and that’s do not procrastinate. Waiting for rate cuts to come may result in prices going up, which means what you save on your mortgage you may pay for in the property you buy. I recommend buyers tie up their purchases now and, if rates fall, they can secure a better rate nearer completion.” 

Michelle Lawson, director at Lawson Financial: “The expected Bank Base rate cut on August 1 could be the switch that ignites the market. Resulting demand for property usually pushes prices up so if you are ‘waiting to see what happens’ this could be it, so be prepared. If you don’t act and miss the window you will end up paying more for the same property as a buyer but will gain if you are a vendor.”

Ben Perks, managing director at Orchard Financial Advisers: “People selling houses are definitely weighing up their options more recently. So buyers are being left to sweat it out. But if you’re a proceedable buyer with a sensible offer, hold your nerve and cross your fingers.”

Harps Garcha, director of Brooklyns Financial: “A rate reduction in August will certainly boost confidence in the property market, especially after a year of seeing the ‘can being kicked down the road’. But will it be enough to ignite the housing market straightaway? The more probable scenario is an increase in market activity in September, once schools are back. If this occurs, we can expect to see stock levels rise first, driven by those who have been waiting for rates to drop and are now ready to move forward with their plans. This scenario is even more probable if fixed rates continue their downward trend over the summer. Nevertheless, buyers should remain cautious, take their time in making offers and avoid rushing into decisions, as purchasing a home is a significant long-term commitment.”

Rohit Kohli, director of The Mortgage Stop: “If, based on current consensus, the Bank of England cuts rates by 25 basis points, house prices will likely rise due to the sheer number of people waiting and watching in the wings and stock levels already being in short supply. We have been consistent in saying to buyers that if they are ready to go then they should press ahead and avoid potential disappointment in the future if the market runs away from them, as it has a habit of doing.”

And Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages: “We are getting to that point in the market when almost anything could happen with property prices. As mortgage rates fall, demand from borrowers will inevitably increase, whipping up more of a frenzy within the property market, but that would also encourage more to sell, potentially flooding the market with those who have waited for better conditions, which may suppress house price growth. Whatever happens, estate agents will be the biggest winners from this change in market conditions.”

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