Rightmove is predicting an average drop of just two per cent in asking prices next year - far less than many other industry commentators and, even at that level, open to substantial variations.
It says that affordability constraints will bite in some segments and sectors of the market much more than others, which makes a national average price prediction for new to the market properties more difficult than usual this year.
And it forecasts that this will lead to a more pronounced hyper-local market, where one side of a city, town or even street could fare better than another, depending on the types of property available and the desirability and affordability of the exact location.
Its prediction statement says: “After many months of having to act extremely quickly, there will be less urgency in the market as buyers wait for the right home to become available for their needs, and some sellers will hold out hoping for a price that matches their expectations.
“We could therefore see a stand-off in the early months of 2023 between some sellers who are in no rush to drop their prices, and those affordability-strapped or hesitant buyers. This will lead to homes taking longer to sell, and we could see a return to the more normal time to find a buyer of around 60 days.”
It also warns people to manage their expectations, saying: “After two and a half years of frenetic activity it’s easy to forget that having multiple bidders immediately lining up to buy your home was the exception rather than the norm in pre-pandemic years, and there will be a period of readjustment for home-movers as properties take longer to find the right buyer.
“We’re heading towards a more even balance between supply and demand next year, but we don’t expect a surge in forced sales which would cause a glut of properties for sale and contribute to more significant price falls in 2023. This is reflected in our prediction of a relatively modest average fall of two per cent next year.”
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Right said Fred
Put a nought on the end and you’re more like it
Even for me that is optimistic, currently asking prices are easily 10-15% below what they were 8 months ago. My house in Bedford that I wish to sell would have been marketed at £325,000 then, now i'm being told offers over £280,000.
If you need to sell quickly you have no option but to drop your price.
I feel this will be short term though, as it is likely that cost of living will continue to fall, interest rates should settle down with no more increases and some confidence will come back to the market.
I will review in February, which gives me a month to carry out a light renovation at which point hopefully I will sell but if prices are too low I will simply re-let.
Property prices are always very variable across different areas, and so I would expect some types of properties in more attractive locations to hold their prices better. Rightmove only deal in asking prices which of course are not always the same as actual sale prices. Looking at the alerts that come through daily from rightmove, over the last couple of months approx 70% of alerts locally are reduced property (so 30% new instructions) and it only triggers an alert if asking price reduced by more than 4%. I think we are still in line for 10% correction on average as being suggested by others.
10 - 15% seems likely the true figure, estate agents and auctions can carry on over valuing property but they won't sell
Agree with Andrew, i have a good friend is who is an estate agent and the ones that are going through now are being significantly down valued by the mortgage companys valuer, now if you don't need a mortgage then you can pay as much over the odds as you wish, but the banks are not that stupid. There are a few sellers near me who are in ' Pre-Liz' mode, but most have got with the programme and are putting them up for a reasonable price ready to be knocked down a bit.
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