There’s no prospect of a rapid recovery for the housing market in 2024 despite some green shoots appearing.
The warning comes from the Nationwide which says this is despite some encouraging signs recently, with mortgage rates edging down.
It says investors have become more optimistic that the Bank of England has already raised rates far enough to return inflation to target and will reduce rates in the years ahead. The Nationwide says this shift in view is important, as it has brought down longer-term interest rates, which underpin fixed mortgage rate pricing.
Chief economist Robert Gardner comments: “Nevertheless, a rapid rebound in activity or house prices in 2024 appears unlikely.
“While cost-of-living pressures are easing, with the rate of inflation now running below the rate of average wage growth, consumer confidence remains weak and surveyors continue to report subdued levels of new buyer enquiries.
“Moreover, while markets are projecting that the next Bank Rate move will be down, there are still upward risks to interest rates. Inflation is declining, but measures of domestic price pressures remain far too high.
“It appears likely that a combination of solid income growth, together with modestly lower house prices and mortgage rates, will gradually improve affordability over time, with housing market activity remaining fairly subdued in the interim.
“If the economy remains sluggish and mortgage rates moderate only gradually, as we expect, house prices are likely to record another small decline or remain broadly flat (perhaps 0 to -2 per cent) over the course of 2024.”
Gardner’s comments came after he reported that UK house prices ended 2023 down 1.8 per cent compared with December 2022, leaving them almost 4.5 per cent below the all-time high recorded in late summer 2022.
He also said owner occupiers have been competing with landlords in the battle to purchase smaller properties.
The Nationwide says that during 2023, there were signs that more buyers were looking towards smaller, less expensive properties, with transaction volumes for flats holding up better than other property types.
Gardner states: “This may be because affordability for flats has held up relatively better as they experienced less of a price increase over the pandemic period. Average prices for flats have increase by 11.0 per cent since Q1 2020 – around half the 22.6 per cent increase for detached properties over the same period.
“However, in our most recent data, we have seen a convergence in the annual rate of price growth for different property types.
“During 2023, the price of semi-detached properties held up best, recording a 1.8 per cent year-on-year fall. Meanwhile, flats and terraced houses both saw a 2.1 per cent annual decline, while detached properties were the weakest performing with prices down 2.7 per cent over the year.”
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Would not listen to anything the Nationwide says, sponsoring the Rogue Activist Groups. As per the previous article if the government sponsor first time buyers the prices will not dip, they will probably rocket during the Q2 & Q3 period of 2024 in anticipation of winning a few votes.
Agreed, the Nationwide Foundation is about as anti PRS as it comes. The Nationwide is happy to profit from its BTL mortgage business whilst simultaneously attacking the PRS and the BTL miracle they helped to create.
Absolutely not to be trusted, period!
At least those selling ex-rentals then (Q2, Q3) will get an increased sale price, to make up for the increased CGT; with more to invest elsewhere or just spend on myself for once - I'd love a holiday, perhaps abroad.
Perhaps it is true that every (RRB) cloud has a silver lining.
Okay, that view is very selfish. But after the Government, opposition, my MP, national LLD bashing charities and even Citizens Advice Bureau now, making a complete mess and demonising LLDs; should I care anymore?
"This time for real!! Any minute now! Just you wait, before you know, millions of property across the UK will see their prices slashed by 50%! This will be even worse than the 2008 financial crash times 10!"
If it is true that property prices will go down in the following months, it is no doubt that these sensational headlines and articles will have played a role in spreading fear and distrust in the housing market.
There are major corporations who are funding the pockets of the journalists who spread these news, and the analysts who come up with the numbers.
The plan is to scare small-time landlords such as ourselves into selling, and for these properties to be gobbled up by said corporations. Those that resist will have to face protections for landlords rescinded by UK governments (also under influence of these corporations) in the name of empowering tenants, including irresponsible ones.
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