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Landlords’ losses to hit £5.7bn by 2024 as rents look set to fall

Buy-to-let landlords face having to reduce rents by at least 5% over the next five years as a growing number of tenants look set to face financial hardship as a mammoth recession looms.

Data analysis Home Made predicts that the upcoming Covid-19 recession will see landlords’ losses hit £5.7bn by 2024 - four times worse than the circa. £1.3bn loss experienced by BTL landlords during the 2008 recession. 

The proptech rental start-up analysed rental value trends post the global financial crisis a decade ago and applied these figures to 2020 to predict the size of the upcoming hit to the rental economy. It projects that rental income will not be back to pre-Covid-19 levels until early 2024. 


London is expected to be the most impacted region, with a rental income decline of at least 9% or £3.9bn in losses for the capital’s landlords by the time pre-Covid prices return – with Westminster, Tower Hamlets and Wandsworth hit the worst. 



Income Lost 2020-2024 



Tower Hamlets 






Kensington and Chelsea 
































Hammersmith and Fulham 
























Richmond upon Thames 






Waltham Forest 



Kingston upon Thames 






Barking and Dagenham 








Asaf Navot, founder and CEO of Home Made, said: “Landlords across the UK need to brace themselves for reduced returns. In a recession, renters with tighter budgets are less inclined to take a risk and move homes due to reduced disposable income and increased job market uncertainty which drives rents down - and the Covid-19 recession looks likely to hit harder than any in living memory.”

Landlords can protect themselves by acting fast and securing longer-term tenancies with their current renters, or alternatively by reacting quickly to the pent-up demand on the new rental market following lockdown, according to Navot. 

He also urges landlords to consider choosing to prioritise long-term income over short-term gain by offering rent reductions for lengthier contracts, guaranteeing greater financial certainty.  

In addition, landlords should consider what else can be done to make properties more attractive to renters in the ‘new normal’. 

Navot added: “Highlight any outdoor spaces, consider allowing pets in the property [pet owners stay around 80% longer in a rental property] and adjust the space for home working. This will all help you stand out and let your property in a slower market. 

“We’re yet to see the full extent of the recession and it’s likely to be a renters’ market for the foreseeable future, but this is far from doomsday. 

“The good news is rental property is a more robust investment than others in a recession, protected from the extreme peaks and troughs of the sales market as people still need to rent homes, even if they’re cutting on other costs such as travel and leisure. 

“Renters are still enquiring, and landlords who are willing to compromise and prioritise longer-term income and smart cash flow management over short term profits – at the same time as streamlining their operations to cut costs – are most likely to succeed.” 

Want to comment on this story? If so...if any post is considered to victimise, harass, degrade or intimidate an individual or group of individuals on any basis, then the post may be deleted and the individual immediately banned from posting in future.

Poll: Are you concerned about the looming recession?


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    Take no notice of this whatsoever. Rents are going up and will continue to. Asaf Navot you need to buy a new calculator. The only possible places affected are Central London but they’ve been maxing it for years so don’t feel sorry for them. I foresee gradual rent increases every year for next five years


    With high loan to value mortgages a thing of the past GR will be renting for a long time to come, supply and demand means rents will increase in most areas , am I worried about the looming recession ? I've always done well in past recessions, cash will be king again.

    Mark Wilson

    Not in central London, rent are off 15%-25%. How can rent go up when everyone is earning less? Good luck on your projection. Nothing wrong with an optimistic outlook.

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    High LTVs are gradually coming back which will encourages prices to stay resilient and thereby justify offering these mortgages which are premised on the assumption that prices will increase. The stamp duty holiday will also encourage some to make a move in higher value areas where SDLT is a hefty drag on top of the deposit. Those whose employment prospects have significantly deteriorated will have no choice and many others will opt for renting for a while to see where things are going before making any long-term decision. And then there is the ever-increasing trend for mobility that the rental sector enables, where you can make a career move and just move house after a couple of years with no hassle.


    Bit risky to assume property prices will increase with jobs going and businesses failing, banks don't like risk.

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    • 28 July 2020 09:45 AM

    In Richmond and Twickenham, rents are going up & up & up...
    I love it..

    The slime bag crook tenants will have to pay even more, and I will happily take it from them.

    All I am working on now is exactly how to shorten the eviction time, and I like the thought of "Illegal evictions and the Police will no even attend"

    That will work for me........

    Mark Wilson

    A real life example of what is wrong with mum an pop landlords.

    They lack objectivity and are unfit to take the responsibility of housing others.

    Not to be trusted!


    You are clearly either someone who isn’t a landlord and has created an account to make a comment like that to make the rest of us look bad or you are the sort of Lowlife landlord giving the rest of us a bad name. Either way I hope you get what you deserve in life and also get thrown off this sight as we don’t need people like you!! .


    Ha ha 😂 Mark Wilson -
    Mum an Pop (your words) landlords have had enough of providing a free ride for tenants with your type of Labour Liberal Communist Anarchist mindset-who want everything to be given for free to tenants by the Landlords, who have worked hard to save up, buy properties and have the courage to take the risk of operating as a business whilst helping to house others.

    It’s Not the responsibility of landlords to house the spoilt brat rogue tenants making their own mum an pop’s life miserable hence kicked out of the family home, unwilling to work hard, or if working then not willing to save up to pay the market rent and/or take the responsibility of buying their own home without mum an pop landlords, or own mum and pop’s help with a house purchase.

    Simple rule written in Law for every tenant & landlord-Public and Private sector:
    Don’t Pay-Evict them.

    Mark Wilson

    Dominic, if are you suggesting that the posts Mr Crisp makes on this site are appropriate then you also lack any credible objectivity.

    Are those who post their hate mail here as dreadful and bigoted in real life?

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    • 28 July 2020 11:36 AM

    Is that aimed at me?

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    • 28 July 2020 11:52 AM

    Anyway, I am a landlord with a substantial portfolio, and I run it as a business. Not a charity.
    Contracts were signed, and I expect that to be adhered to. Just as any company would.
    Any default is illegal. Just as in any business.
    To not pay a debt in business is illegal. So why should I give it away.

    If I had wanted to start a charity, I would not want to be in this business.

    I hate thieves, crooks, scroungers, liars, cheats and defaulters.

    The system does NOT support me, so I have to fight what is best for me, my family and my children......And for that, I will do anything...Just as any business would.

    You really have NO LEGS to stan on........You are totally contradictory to normality.

    Have you ever given away anything?

    • 28 July 2020 12:07 PM

    Don't concern yourself with the Dominic troll we LL share all your sentiments as you are totally correct.

    We've nearly all suffered from wrongun tenants.
    They have cost us LL fortunes over the years.

    Govt is just making things even more difficult to make the so and sos comply with their AST

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    • 28 July 2020 12:07 PM

    @Dominic Tighe

    Then tell me honestly why it is wrong that I want compensation from people who steal for me and why I should not maximise the profit level of my business? Simple answer needed. And it is simple if you botht to think about it.

    Every business in this world does what I am doing. And they also will prosecute those who steal from them, and expect compensation, so why am I treated differently?

    So it is good for them, but according to you, not for me?

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    • 28 July 2020 12:09 PM

    And anyway, each and every defaulter is a piece of shit.
    There...I said it and it is true.


    David Crisp,
    Spot on!👍🏼

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    • 28 July 2020 12:13 PM

    @ markwilson

    Nope it is you that are not representative of good LL.

    We small LL provide an excellent service.

    We just get more than a little fed up with wrongun tenants especially the ones that consider it perfectly acceptable to stay in our properties not paying rent before eventually being evicted.

    We are are far superior than corporate lettings.

    This tenants will find out as small LL sell up.

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    • 28 July 2020 12:26 PM

    And so do I....It all very good until these people start to steal from me and strangely to people like you, you don't mind.

    Strangely, I DO mind, and I mind a lot. And in most instances it was because I was rather too kind to allow these people to my properties.

    Never again.....I am now going to protect my business to the ultimate.

    Why does no one see that if these people were punished for their crimes, then much less of them would steal.

    It is like saying to the murderer...."No worries Boss...Carry on as usual...Do it as often as you want...."

    Would you allow that?

    I know what your anser should be, but under your current views you would allow the wrongdooers to just carry on.........

    Answer please?
    If you dare.......

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    • 28 July 2020 12:29 PM

    And anyway....You have no idea just how good I have been.
    However, the current regime forces me to protect my assets and my livelihood.

    Others have made this path, not me. I now must react to the climates.

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    • 28 July 2020 12:31 PM

    @ A Bhalla

    Brilliant.......And true.......and very well expressed.
    Marry me? :-)

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    Paul Barnett I’m not a troll. I am an experienced LL with 20 properties and 30 years in the game. I have had my share of bad tenants and I have experienced the same level of frustration doing something about them as many others in our community. I have also been very frustrated with the victimisation of landlords by the the press and the government over a number of years. What we need is a serious positive PR campaign showing the good work the mass majority of decent landlords do and the positive contribution we make to the housing sector. Without this the pressure will continue to mount on us and there will be more and more damaging ill thought through legislation that will make life harder and harder for the LL community in general and our tenants. Thus I would appeal to you and all our community to think very carefully before supporting comments such as made by David Crisp above where he has advocated breaking the law to evict tenants and referred to All defaulters whatever their circumstances as pieces of shit.

    • 28 July 2020 13:17 PM


    Given the choice between being bankrupted or having a rent defaulting tenant removed by men in the dead of the night then that is what will happen.

    You would be a very stupid LL if you allowed the eviction process to bankrupt you.

    You need to think very carefully how you proceed in future business.

    You are very naive.

    Just one wrongun tenant could bankrupt me.

    Do you seriously believe I would allow that!!!??

    I DON'T give a stuff about the eviction process.

    My financial security means far more than some scroat of a rent defaulting tenant..

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    • 28 July 2020 12:35 PM

    If eviction in that form is necessary, then let's bring it to the attention of the MOB in Whitehall.......
    And I WILL do it.......Otherise I will lose my properties and my earnings...And you will ied down and do zero!!!

    Typical lefty shit.

    So, I assume you will just go bankrupt without any action and just let it all happen.

    Good Luck to your stupidity.

    • 28 July 2020 13:33 PM

    Yep there does seem to be some weird LL out there.

    They very naively seem to believe that one must comply with the dysfunctional eviction process even if it means being bankrupted and made homeless.

    How very quaint!!

    These idiots would presumably throw open the doors of their home and let burglars come and help themselves as that is want allowing rent defaulting tenants to remain is facilitating.

    Never have I heard so much twaddle from clearly idiot LL irrespective of how long they have been doing it.
    An idiot is an idiot no matter how long that has been the case.

    It is no wonder with pathetic LL attitudes like that; that Govt and Councils walk all over LL.

    With idiots like this we saner LL deserve everything that happens to us.
    We need to get rid of the Dominic type idiots from the PRS.
    They are causing much damage to good LL.

    Personally I'm giving up the fight.
    I can no longer risk remaining a LL while the current dysfunctional eviction process exists.
    .What the PRS needs are millions of Mr Crisps stating our justified case.

    We DON'T want that much.

    What we want to do is provide a good service but to be able to very quickly remove tenants who refuse to pay rent.

    I can't see anything unreasonable in that!!!.

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    @Mark Wilson. I apologise if the my comments appeared in the thread as if they were aimed at you as they most absolutely were not. They were aimed at David Crisp. I think you and I hold the same views and if you read my comments further down I hope you will agree. Sadly reading the comments that then followed leaves me with my head in my hands! I would also implore more of the responsible balanced landlords on here to speak up. Otherwise this site will end up getting used against us.

    • 28 July 2020 16:17 PM

    Like you don't deserve to destroy the whole market with your pathetic left wing sypathies that will destroy me and YOU in the long term.

    I will revel in bliss in 10 years time when your whole portfolio falls apart because your feckless tenants have led you to bankruptcy for non payments encouraged by a pathetic government.

    The you will thank me.

    • 28 July 2020 16:26 PM

    It is already against you. Thank goodness.
    As most hard-working normal landlords would agree with me.

    Why on earth do you want people to rip you off? It proves you are a lunatic!

    Now sue me for freedom of speech because I disagree with your maniacal stupidity.

  • Mark Wilson

    Thank you Dominic, I posted the other week that those making offensive posts are Shelter and the likes best friends!

  • Mark Wilson

    Dominic, looking at the various posts I spoke to soon and I apologise back that as I should have read more carefully.

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    Thanks Mark. Im glad we are on the same page.

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    • 28 July 2020 15:27 PM

    Mark and Dominic
    Just go away.
    You are doing nothing to advance the LL position.

    Indeed you are just attempting to cover for feckless tenants..
    You two are completely wrong about our attitudes.
    We just want paying for the services we provide...You two idiots would have us provide accommodation for nothing.
    You are worse than useless.
    You are damaging good LL.
    Your views are pathetic.

    We seek no rapprochement with tenants who if they DON'T pay rent we want out immediately.

    You seem to think this is unreasonable.
    No it is you being unreasonable.
    We DON'T house people for free even though that is effectively what private LL are being forced to do by Govt.

    You do not represent the majority view of LL who have far more in common with myself and Mr Crisp than you pair of idiots.

    Just go away and leave this site for normal sensible LL which you AREN'T!!

    • 28 July 2020 16:00 PM

    Brilliant, and so, so right....
    Presumably these guys have no business accumen whatsoever and also want to give free tenantcy to people who deliberatly want to rip them off......

    And those tenenats have (ridiculously) been given the weapons to do just that to you. And you let them do it. Time and time again.

    I happen to not appreciate being being ripped off by anyone, for any reason, at any time.

    So OK...if you wish to lose your business to these thieves, then go ahead. Sooner the better and you might just come to your senses, but on second thoughts, left wing, nutter liberals rarely if ever do.

    I will fight and fight to get what is rightfully mine.

    Corona Virus or not..........It is their liability to pay me for my services that they agreed to. Even it was Smallpox, Bubonic Plague, or they have terminal cancer they MUST pay.

    It happens to be the rules they signed up for. Pay up you thieving shites.

    With lusk most of then will get the virus from their 3 weekly visits to Weatherspoon, where thay are spending YOUR money on their soon to be feckless children too.....

    FULL bloody STOP!!!!!!!

    And..as always most LL WILL agree with me.......Becuse they too want to protect their investments and families.......and livelihood.

    Sod the feckless scroungres and theiving asses.......I hope they die soon, so I can get my property back

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    @Paul Barrett

    Thank you for kind words regarding my nativity and idiocy, I shall of course take great heed of your advice as you are so clearly such a seasoned sage of the BTL world and great business guru. Just a couple of observations to make.

    Firstly I read with great interest that you have had enough and decided to leave the sector. I am sure the whole housing industry will be devastated to hear this news and miss your well balanced commentary. It of course makes me wonder if perhaps encouraging people like you to get out of the game was the governments intention all along? If it was, and I think we all know what kind of person you really are Paul, then strike one to the government I guess. Shame that it took a massive sledge hammer that affects us all to get the odd rotten nut out of the industry but then I guess Machiavelli would have something to say about that.

    My second point is that over the years I have worked hard to build a solid business through good working practices and developing professional and mutual respect with my tenants. During that time I have still had my fair share of people who have not paid rents for various reasons and even had the odd property trashed at great expense to myself. And yet throughout that time, even with everything the government has thrown at us, through careful business management and adaptation I have made a very respectable living. Reading your advice it seems even stranger that I continue to make a good profit now. Even through this current crisis, through engagement with my tenants we have been able to find a way through and I continue to make a fair and reasonable living. And if tomorrow a few of my tenants suddenly found it impossible to pay the rent and one decided to take the whole thing out on one of my properties my business model would still survive and I would still be able to put some food on the table. And yet you Paul Barrett, this great sage and commentator of the BTL world, this self confessed Warren Buffet of the housing sector could not survive even one defaulter? To quote you from above “Just one wrongun tenant could bankrupt me”

    It leaves me questioning your advise and wondering who the Naive Idiot really is …

    • 28 July 2020 18:10 PM

    I am a very profitable LL as I am a very good LL.
    So good that I have former good tenants returning to me.

    The problem as I perceive it is the dysfunctional eviction process.
    Only one of my tenants has qualified for RGI and that cost the RGI company £10000 when even that tenant rent defaulted!!
    It is pretty easy to make profits but only if tenants pay rent abd vacate quickly if they DON'T..
    Trouble is this rarely occurs.
    I simply DON'T have thousands of pounds to pay mortgages for over 10 months whilst evicting.

    That is why I'm getting out the yields aren't worth the risks.

    Without BTL mortgages then yes I would remain an AST LL making good profits

    But am not prepared to remain an AST LL in light of the even more onerous eviction processes.

    Enough is enough.

    Many LL may choise to carry on risking.
    Not for me anymore.
    I now aspire to become a lodger LL with a 4 bed house.
    That is a risk I can take while making more net yield than 4 flats

    BTL is just a busted flush because of S2r and the useless eviction process which is why I as an e excellent LL will be exiting the PRS
    My occupants will niss ne.
    One called me so kind.

    These ars the epithets that might occupants express about me.


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    • 28 July 2020 16:05 PM

    @Paul Barrett

    Exactly.....Well said - And I see little response from the wimping lefties.....! As always, as there is NO defence from the reality.



    We all run our own businesses differently, with different methods, presently I have 15 good tenants, and one I would like to see the back of , but in fairness to her she is paying her rent, I will bend over backwards for good tenants, but take the P out of my good nature and watch out, red rag to a bull, I /we are not charities , and I too have no time for wimping lefties on here

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    • 28 July 2020 23:27 PM

    I just find it bizarre that the idea that a tenant should comply with their tenancy conditions is in any way controversial.

    Just because tenants maybe can't pay their rent for WHATEVER reason is no excuse for tenants to continue occupying.

    Morally such tenants should offer to vacate a property if unable to pay rent..

    It should be for the LL to make business decision as to whether he wishes to continue a business relationship with the tenant.

    Rent defaulting doesn't automatically lead to eviction.
    It depends on what the individual LL wishes to do.

    Trouble is the LL us no longer allowed to make business decisions.

    Govt prevent LL from evicting quickly.

    As such LL are the eternal victims of wrongun tenants.

    So weak are the voices of good LL that they are being walked all over by deviant organisations like GR and. Shelter.

    Good LL are being placed in an impossible position.

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    Andrew Townshend I think most of us would agree. The point of the thread has been lost. What was been called out was the advocating of illegal evictions and the blanket naming of all tenants who cannot pay their rent as pieces of shit! Comments like that just play into the hands of the likes of Shelter and other campaigning bodies that are creating so much trouble for us all as well as being utterly irresponsible. Now if that makes me a “leftie” I guess I better get a Labour Party membership! We will reap what we sow Andrew.


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