House prices may fall 10% warns leading independent expert

I think the 10% mentioned would be a good outcome given the chaos that is around at the moment.

100% by 2030

Given that they have risen by 25% in the last 2 years in many places this is not really a problem except for those who over stretched when they bought or now have to or choose to sell.

I think this will be the least of our problems over the next couple of years. Being a home owner with a mortgage will probably be even more difficult than being a tenant as landlords won't be able to pass on all the increased costs.

Are they talking about asking prices, sale prices, new builds, second hand houses, estate agent valuations or mortgage surveyor valuations?
If they mean a drop in mortgage surveyor valuations a lot of people will be in trouble as in my experience valuations have been ultra cautious for several months already.
There's been a mismatch for most of this year but conveyancing has been so slow maybe the trend hasn't been analysed yet due to a lack of completions data.

The big problems will be in the remortgage market, especially for those coming to the end of the Help to Buy deal and needing to get a new fixed rate.

Another pointless story. Yes they could, it all depends on how the economy performs over the next 12 months.
The Chancellor is thinking outside the box. The Economists don't like it as they apply lessons from history and say that this will not work, they could be right. But equally they could be wrong. We are in new territory now and it is difficult to see how this will go. We know that we have challenging times ahead and we know that the war in Ukraine is a major factor.
The Chancellor is gambling by allowing the top earners to have money in their pockets that they will carrying on spending and buying. This will keep the tradesmen with enough work and the restaurants , distributers, etc etc.
He is also trying to keep the companies doing the same by giving them better cash flow.
It is a shame Landlord's aren't treated the same.
But nobody knows what people will do and how they will react and if this will work.
What I fail to understand is why massively increasing interest rates now will be a good thing. We know that we have to stay competitive with other currencies but by pushing us into a recession has surely got to be the worst outcome.
I have no confidence in the Bank of England, they should never have allowed interest rates to get as low as they did. If they had been better at this then Osbourne surely would not have brought in Section 24, speculative I know.
We shall see!

• Jo Westlake
• 29 September 2022 12:22 PM

Well said.
Incentivising high earning people to live and pay tax in the UK has got to be an overall good thing from a tax revenue point of view.
Incentivising companies to operate and employ people in the UK also has to be good as long as the wages are somewhat more than minimum wage.

Now he needs to tweak tax thresholds to incentivise those lower down the earnings chain to work more hours and get rid of the cliff edges at £50000 (loss of Child Benefit) and £100000 (loss of personal allowance).
The UC elements and earnings disregard are clearly acting as a disincentive to work and the per person allowances are just nonsensical. A child gets about twice as much as a second adult.

With rising interest rates there's a real danger people won't be able to keep hold of their own mortgaged house and will have to go back to renting. The increase to the UC bill could be immense but the individual families would be significantly better off financially, at least in the short term. Their dreams and aspirations would have been shattered but they'd be better able to pay their bills with all those discretionary payments and cost of living handouts exclusively for benefit claimant tenants. Even the ones who work and earn decent money.

The Chancellor has choices to make. Doing nothing and watching wholesale repossessions is probably the most destructive option. Sunak's scattergun approach caused chaos. Rewarding effort and achievement
through the tax system has got to be worth a go.

• Login to like comment
• 2
• Login to Report

 

Highly mortgaged property "owners" will become renters. The big corporations will take over ownership. Agenda 21 includes the planned inventory and ownership of everything. You, the individual, will own nothing and be happy, but nowhere near as happy as those who will own everything! 2030 - the clock is ticking. Remember that song: "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life." Keep singing...it might help.

It's worth bearing in mind that the boomers born 1946-70 are now likely focused on downsizing (from an equity, if not space perspective) and moving away from London. The shortage of suitable property in lifestyle locations, still relatively accesible to the capital, will mitigate some, if not more than all falls in prices due to affordability among buyers requiring mortgages.

That said, anyone sat on a high LTV slave box within the M25 might have some sleepless nights ahead.

Based on his 10% prediction, Ray Bolger might be related to Michael Fish. Tricia has pointed out that house prices have risen 25% in two years. Two years ago people were getting mortgages at 1%. Disposable incomes have fallen steadily since then. Tenants are paying historically high rents in relation to their income. Landlords with low levels of debt can expect a medium term hit but they will weather the storm. Landlords who are heavily leveraged have a problem.

Barry their is another factor many young professionals have bought outside London because property there is much better value, with so much technology they can do a great deal without physical being there, getting away from Mr Khan £15 pa Congestion Charge and £12.50 ULEZ pd and outrageous park charges, now he’s going to extend the area out to M25, no stopping him a law on to himself.

Houses could easil drop more than 10% Borrowers have been subsidised by savers for years. The ' sarf east "east had a bonanza as the rest of the country has been looted and the proceeds dumped into aforesaid property market. Houses in London are any easy 4 x too much. We have had a cloud cuckoo economy since Thatcher trashed British lndustry using North Sea oil revenues.

There are so many variables here it is difficult to predict. I would be confident in saying that a slow down is on the cards.
One factor that is of concern for homeowners. They hold a lot more debt than their ancestors from the 1980's. I mention this as interest rates were in double figures then but there was less debt. Fewer credit cards, fewer lease deals on cars etc.
Therefore a lower interest will have a greater effect on them.
I have not looked into the cost of living cost back then as a percentage of earnings.
Therefore if you do have a mortgage(s) on your BTL's then best run some figures to see what is affordable to you.
I hope that the Government and Bank of England start lining up with each other otherwise the confidence in the market and the good ship UK will flounder and it will be on their shoulders.
The UK is still a strong viable market place, all this shenanigans is on confidence currently, USA, China, Japan, Euro zone and Russia are all struggling, but they would appear to have more confidence from the IMF than we do, more UK bashing.
Not a time to be an Ostrich!

• Andrew townshend
• 30 September 2022 08:43 AM

Agreed, the false like style based on debt, money has been too easy and cheap to borrow, few people ask the price of an item just how much is it a month

• Login to like comment
• 4
• Login to Report