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Lettings market guru warns tenants of more rent rises ahead

There’s a blunt warning to renters from the man behind the monthly lettings market snapshot from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. 

RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “Demand shows no signs of letting up, supply remains constrained and that means rents are likely to continue rising sharply despite the cost-of-living crisis.”

His warning comes alongside the latest lettings survey by the institution.

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This shows that tenant demand rose firmly over the three months to July according to a big 54 per cent net majority of respondents.

RICS says this points to the strongest quarterly pick-up in rental demand since the start of 2022. 

Set against this, supply - in the shape of landlord instructions - declined once again, with the latest net balance falling to minus 30 per cent from minus 24 per cent previously.

On the back of this enduring mismatch between rising demand and dwindling supply, a net balance of 63 per cent of lettings agents expect rental prices to increase still further over the coming three months. 

RICS says this is up from a figure of 55 per cent in the previous quarter and marks a fresh record high.

In response, Tom Bill of lettings agency Knight Frank says: “Landlords have left the sector in recent years due to extra red tape and costs as they became a politically expedient target for the government. 

“The unintended consequence has been more financial pain for tenants as the supply of rental properties falls and rents rise. Higher mortgage rates have compounded the problem which means the squeeze on tenants won’t vanish in the short term. 

“That said, supply has risen in some areas as owners who have failed to sell for the asking price choose to let out their property until there is more momentum in the sales market.”

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    The situation will become much worse as the Renters Reform legislation comes into force. Even with mortgage interest rate rises, rents would remain stable if there were a very large supply of rental property otherwise people would not be able to let their flats. As it is, more and more landlords will withdraw from operating in the private rental sector. We know what the situation was like in the past when there were assured tenancies, but not shorthold assured tenancies - tenants couldn't find anywhere to live.

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    I recently have a house empty. I’m taking my time fixing it up. Market is bad for selling and I’m not renting it again due the the Renters Reform Bill.

     
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    What you are doing Nick is a good investment. However, it is most unfair that you - and all landlords really - have been put in this dreadful position.

     
    Rothwell Rebel

    We have pulled all three of our properties - whilst we can.

    I really don't know what planet Labour are on, to 'shift the balance of power' from a Landlords' asset to a tenant. Remind me, Whose name is on the title deeds?
    I'm afraid Labour are for the 'free-stuff socialists' who think that they are entitled to everyone else's hard-earned income and assets.

    Our (adult) children will now have a roof over their heads whilst just paying for utilities. Thankfully we are mortgage-free on all properties.

     
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    A combination of mortgage increases, Section 24 and the Renters Reform Bill are obviously going to increase rents.
    Tenants can take some comfort from the fact their rent increases are nowhere even close to our mortgage increases this year. We are protecting them somewhat from the worst of the financial disaster Sunak and the BoE have created.
    The mortgage payment on one of my HMOs is going up nearly £600 a month in October. Rent increases at 9% will be £45 per tenant. It's a 6 person house. Throw in Section 24 and it bakes in that level of rent rises for at least 3 years. That allows nothing to go towards increasing costs for insurance, safety checks, repairs, EPC upgrades, etc.
    My 5 person HMO that comes to the end of its fix in November is even worse. Mortgage payments will increase £756 a month.
    Fortunately for tenants I can spread rent increases across my portfolio, some of which is unencumbered, so I have the choice of whether to stick with it or not. How many landlords with only a couple of properties can afford to absorb mortgage increases to that degree?

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    We cannot… so we sell 💰💰

     
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    Nearly 40% of landlords have no debt or borrowing, and without the drop in supply caused by the impending RENTERS REFORM legislation those people with mortgages would find it difficult to compete in the private rental market. People with no debts could afford not to raise rents at all - if markets conditions (high supply and low demand) made that essential.

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    I read recently that a large percentage of BTL mortgages are interest only rather than repayment. I would be interested to see accurate and in depth figures on this as it must have an impact going forward re how many more Landlords will sell to consolidate borrowing or just sell up.

    Combined with RRB it really is the perfect storm. B&Bs will do well!

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    You're right that most BTL mortgages are interest only. That's been standard for at least 15 years and fairly mainstream for several years before that.
    The criteria of lenders has caused some of us to consolidate borrowing onto the smallest number of properties to give access to the greatest number of lenders. Some will only lend to people with less than 3 properties, some with up to 10 BTL mortgages, etc. It can make borrowing decisions irrational. Small, self contained properties have lower mortgage rates than HMOs but because they are lower value it's easier to clear those mortgages and consolidate borrowing onto the more valuable HMOs.
    There are so many different factors skewing the whole situation. CGT is a major factor and again has an impact on which properties we mortgage. Most of my mortgages are now consolidated onto the properties I have owned the longest as I am least likely to sell those due to the CGT. My more recently bought stuff is mainly unencumbered so there are less barriers and penalties should I wish to sell anything. From a mortgage rate perspective it's a crazy way to operate but it's what the lenders and their treatment of portfolio landlords has led to.

     
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    I can’t see this announcement coming as a surprise to anyone, unless they have been living in a cave, 🤐

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    • A JR
    • 11 August 2023 08:12 AM

    I have never really understood why lenders prefer LLs with just 3 properties.
    Whilst I realise everybody’s situation varies, it seems that larger portfolios should have better cash flow and a greater ability to absorb void periods, interest hikes etc.
    Yes to some extent it may depend on the degree of leverage but even so generally stability should improve with scale.

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    It seems counterintuitive to favour amateur landlords with only a couple of properties. Surely they are more likely to be unaware of their legal obligations and therefore be at greater risk of being fined, treat being a landlord as a hobby to fit in after their day job, family life, etc. How many people try it and realise they hate being responsible for tenants, they resent the time it takes up and feel they have made a mistake?

    Personally I think it would make more sense if lending decisions were based on the overall portfolio LTV rather than the number of mortgages.

    Some of us live and breathe being a landlord. It's a very high priority to us. We fit other aspects of our lives around it. My husband and I both have zero hours or agency jobs which we do when we haven't got any landlord or family stuff to do. We then find mortgage lenders don't understand that concept. On a remortgage application one lender got very het up about my ZHC (which I've done for over 8 years as an alternative to a gym membership). I know lenders hate gym memberships but it seems they also hate a well paid alternative.
    It just seems bizarre lenders will lend millions of pounds and then not encourage us to nurture the assets that money is secured against.

     
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    While I agree with most of what Jo says, indeed her comments are usually very good; I would point out that a small number of rentals doesn't equate to "amateur landlords". Sorry.

    The meddling politicians peddle the line of needing to professionalise the PRS as a reason for their current Bill.
    Which is why I am writing this, pushing back on it.

    I'm a small LLD, with just the right number for me, but I have got things right several times when a couple of lettings agents got them wrong: so I was both paying them and having to correct them. Because I took the time to check things out, they didn't.

    Very small LLDs I know (one property e.g. to aid their pension) use Agents -who should be professional- to manage their rentals, and so avoid much of the hassle etc Jo describes.
    If they don't they are leaving themselves wide open: to con-artist tenants, and the increased rules that Govt. have introduced over the years.

     
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    85% of landlords own between 1 and 4 properties and 45% own only 1 property. It is possible to self-manage very efficiently that number of properties.

     
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    Henry, I used a very well known agent who I consider to be a con-artist. Not filling out the paper work properly, blocked me issuing a S21 even though I asked them to correct their mistakes. Grossly inflated tradesmen costs, and more chasing them to do anything when I could just get a builder myself quicker, cheaper and less hassle. They claimed to be all heart, but they don't have one....

     
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    Well the mistake there Nick was using a '' well known big agent where you are no more than a number, these big agents employee wet behind the ears boys and girls who talk the talk know the lot and in fact know F all, small and local are the ones to use

     
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    Obviously some small landlords can have many years experience and be very knowledgeable. Most portfolio landlords started small and may well downsize and become small again. I guess the level of knowledge and competence is really down to enthusiasm for the subject. However, lenders seem to encourage complete newbies with no experience whatsoever with better deals than portfolio landlords have access to.

    While around 85% of landlords may own between one and four properties each isn't it something like 18% of landlords own 50% of rental properties? So that presumably means a disproportionately high number of tenants are impacted by Section 24. Especially if you assume portfolio landlords are more likely to own HMOs as very few lenders are willing to grant HMO mortgages to inexperienced landlords.
    It's the fact we get charged more than a newbie for the vanilla stuff that really gets me.

     
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    It's purely to do with risk ... the banks that normally lend on residential owner-occupied property understand that if you have a regular income from steady employment, then you are a very safe bet in terms of keeping up to date with payments.
    By contrast, rental income is not certain, so they see each property as a potential liability. So the more properties you have, the greater the potential for trouble, ignoring statistical effects like the law of large numbers and central tendency that they really should understand. You would expect the underwriters to have some exposure to the relevant mathematics.
    This was really brought home to me when I applied for a larger mortgage from my bank so I could move house. I was shocked at how little they would lend me and queried it. It turned out that my unincorporated BTLs reduced the size of the available loan by about 50% because they considered them a risk. I pointed out that my tax returns have shown a profit every year from renting out property, to which the assistant replied: "There might be voids". I asked if she had any idea how ridiculous that sounded given the current demand for rental property? She didn't disagree but said that was the policy and if I just had my work income or if they were in a limited company structure then they would have been happy to lend me the money I needed to buy the property.

     
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    That's really interesting Peter because what you have said is based on real experience, not simply speculation.

     
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    Rogue Mayor at it again bringing in ULEZ without a mandate when the Consultation showed 65% were against.
    Rogue now wants £2.2 billion of tax payers money to deal with housing situation none of his business that his mate other Rogue housing Secretary caused.
    He should have no problem getting free tax payers money off him.
    The pretend to be surprised that housing supply stalled.
    Is there no limits to this free tax payers money Corruption.

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    I agree with Jo. It is ridiculous that lenders do not look at the overall picture. I have about 8 mortgages and 3 free of borrowing. However overall borrowing is about 40%. I am hoping to pay off 2 small loans, when the fixed rate ends for both of them within next 4 months. I borrowed a little extra last year when a fixed the rate for one of my other properties at 2.35%. The loans that are due within 4 months will go up from almost 4% to 7%. So ready to pay them off. Having a larger portfolio than just 3 properties is less risky as 2 properties having a void will have less impact on overall income. The 2 properties I wish to pay off are empty for a while. They have been refurbished with insulation etc. There is a lot of demand for rent but will stay empty as the applicants do not have a valud sharecode. They are all working but expired work permit and tbey have applied. They all insist that they have a right of accomodation. However, I point out that Home office letter also states in the next line that it is after the landlord has verified their right to rent status. They all make out that they fo not understamd why I am not giving them a home. Most of them do not wish to view the property but just move in. I am asking for a sharecode and dob for me to verify their status before viewing, as that has been a stumbling during the viewing and our chats. I am happy not to take their holding deposit but I do still need to do the proper checks.

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    Vibha, you are right not to take a holding Deposit because there is no such thing it was abolished unless you think a week’s rent to puts a stay on your property is acceptable but it’s not its derisory.
    So you have a liability for a property of hundreds of thousands of pounds over your head and expected to give sway over it to a stranger for a pittance.
    Give us a break…

  • Peter Why Do I Bother

    All my agreements have changed to raises every year from now on and when RRB kicks in then it will also include annual raises.

    Well done Gove, Ben, Polly and Ginger Groups. Managed to fk up a great deal for all tenants and inadvertently caused the government more problems than it needs.

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